2007 Big 12 Predictions

Here are my preseason predictions on the Big 12 this season, I think that this conference will once again be a dogfight and likely decided again in the final weeks of the season. I like the pitching staff that Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Texas A&M and Kansas State have returning this season. The top offenses returning in the Big 12 are found at Oklahoma State, Nebraska and Texas. The wildcards are the Aggie offense and the Texas pitching staff. If the Aggie offense is in the middle to upper half of the conference, they will be the most improved team in the league. The 'Horns must adjust to a new pitching coach and they have several key arms that are already hurting. A seamless adjustment to Johnson's coaching and return to full strength on the mound would have them challenging for the conference crown. The Aggie JUCO transfers will outshine Baylor's freshmen in a battle for fourth place this year.

1. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Strength of the Team: The Cowboys have a terrific lineup returning this year and it only got better when Matt Mangini transferred into the program. Tyler Mach, the reigning Big 12 Offensive MVP will only benefit from Mangini batting behind him in the lineup. Add in potential All-Big 12 selections in Corey Brown, Jordy Mercer and Keanon Smith and this team will have an offense that might be the best the league has seen since the NCAA deadened the bats in 2000.
Biggest Questions: Pitching is the only question but with and offense that will score runs, the Oklahoma State pitching staff will not need to pitch shutouts to win games.
Why they will win the Big 12: Frank Anderson, one of the best pitching coaches in college baseball has players with talent, and he usually molds that talent into winning. Two top notch JUCO pitchers combined with a strong freshman class of pitchers will have their feet under them by the time the Cowboys reach Big 12 games.

2. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Strength of the Team: Two of the best players in the league are Tony Watson and Ryan Wehrle and as they go, so go the 'Huskers. The players around these two are deep in every position except catcher. Johnny Dorn is as tough a #2 pitcher as there is in the Big 12 and Andrew Brown is a terrific hitter looking for a position.
Biggest Questions: Catcher is a big question; a talented pitching staff that doesn't trust their catcher's defensive ability are not nearly as dangerous. If your pitchers won't throw the ball down in the strikezone for fear that they will bounce against the backstop, then they are not the pitchers they can be.
Why they will win the Big 12: Thad Weber will provide punch at the plate and he might solve another problem for the 'Huskers, pitching at the end of the game. Brett Jensen went 8-5 with 29 saves the past two years. Add him to Andy Gerch and Jake Opitz and this lineup will bash the ball.

3. Texas Longhorns
Strength of the Team: The Longhorns, who return seven starters and two of their top three starters from last season and are the highest ranked Big 12 team entering the season. Jordan Danks is a future star but he is misplaced in the #2 hole in the lineup and Kyle Russell, the returning power threat with 10 HRs and 42 RBI, is a free-swinger who strikes out to much. The small ball offense puts the pressure on the defense and at the college level that strategy works more than the next level.
Biggest Questions: Texas lineup has only a couple of holes to fill but replacing Drew Stubbs and Carson Kainer. Augie Garrido's offense will give away outs to move runners into scoring position but losing those two hitters will put increase the pressure on players that were only complementary to the them last year like Brad Suttle and Kyle Russell.
Why they will win the Big 12: Pitching coach Skip Johnson would surpass the job done by his predecessor Tom Holliday and turn a talented pitching staff into the best in the league. Injuries have several pitchers missing time early in the season (Adrian Alaniz and Riley Boening) and Kenn Kasparek missing the entire season. If they can take a lead to the late innings Austin Wood is the best closer in the league

4. Texas A&M Aggies

Strength of the Team: Athleticism and a fresh approach to the offensive lineup will be the key to the Aggies turnaround this season. The Aggies addressed their two shortcomings last season, offensive output and closing out the games in the bullpen. No recruiting class in the nation will have a larger impact than this one will. A&M will have transfer starters at second base, shortstop, left and right field and designated hitter. First base will be a platoon with a transfer splitting time.
Biggest Questions: Closing out the ballgame but four pitchers (Gary Campfield, Jordan Chambless, Kiel Renfro and Kirkland Rivers) have the talent to do the job. Coach Childress must find out what role those pitcher excel in order to structure the bullpen for maximum effectiveness.
Why they will win the Big 12: The offense is the fastest in the league and that speed turns into victories. Allowing the pitching staff to relax on the mound takes the pressure of the starters and keeps the team from a vicious cycle of the offense and the pitchers wondering if one or the other would fail to show up.

5. Oklahoma Sooners

Strength of the Team: The Sooners return 13 letterwinners in 2007 including five position starters and two pitchers with starting experience from one of two teams that advanced to super regional play last year. Joining the veterans is a group of newcomers that were ranked as high as No. 4 by Collegiate Baseball magazine. Ryan Mottern must win games on Friday nights against the best the Big 12 has to offer.
Biggest Questions: Oklahoma benefited from a senior laden ball club last year and must replace the four senior starters in the field and three on the mound. Losing Aaron Reza for a month due to injury hurts the Sooner defense more than the Sooner offense. OU must find a closer and if they do, they could exceed my expectations.
Why they will win the Big 12: The recruiting class will fill the holes left by the departed players and in some cases surpass their predecessors. Aljay Davis, Aaron Baker and Devin Shepard are all big time recruits that will start and should not miss a beat. Brad Burns must give the Sooners another effective, experienced weekend starter.

6. Baylor Bears

Strength of the Team: The Baylor Bears brought in the #1 recruiting class in the country according to Baseball America and the future of the program is in their hands. The only problem is those freshman will make up the majority of the everyday Bear lineup. Freshman struggle in the Big 12, no matter what their credentials were in high school. Nick Cassavechia is one of the top closers in the Big 12 and if Baylor has save opportunities, they will finish higher than sixth.
Biggest Questions: Replacing Zach Dillon and Seth Fortenberry at the plate and both Ryan Lamotta and Cory Van Allen on the mound will be a problem. They were four of the key players that took Baylor to the College World Series in 2005 and that only leaves for players from the 2005 team still on the roster.
Why they will win the Big 12: The freshman hitters mature quickly and provide power in the lineup. Ryan Jenkins return from arm surgery, likely after Big 12 play starts, would give the rotation a big boost if he is as effective as he was in high school. Baylor will finish behind A&M because the Aggies JUCO players will outperform Baylor's freshmen.

7. Texas Tech

Strength of the Team: Offense is always first and foremost in the high plains of Lubbock and this year will be no different. Four hitters that hit over .300 last year return with Big 12 Freshman of the Year Roger Kieschnick and All-Big 12 catcher Matt Smith leading the way. Willie Rueda is another top sophomore position player that could earn post-season accolades. Texas Tech went to the JUCO ranks to fill in the holes and they always seem to find hitters.
Biggest Questions: Texas Tech has not had effective pitching since Frank Anderson was the pitching coach and that is the primary reason that they have not competed for the Big 12 title since the 1997 season. Miles Morgan was the Big 12 Freshman pitcher of the year but he still had a losing record. Colt Hynes is the only pitcher returning with a winning record, was mainly as a reliever in 2006.
Why they will win the Big 12: They must improve on the road, they went 9-18 on the road and that is directly related to not hitting as well away from Dan Law Field and struggling on the mound. The must hold their own against Nebraska and Baylor to start conference play.

8. Missouri Tigers

Strength of the Team: Like Oklahoma, the Tigers have a confident team entering the season after making a surprising run into Super Regional play. The lineup returns six of last seasons top nine hitters including the three highest averages on the team. That lineup will score enough runs to give the pitching staff a chance to get their feet under them.
Biggest Questions: The pitching staff has major holes to fill as the pitchers returning only account for nine of last seasons 35 wins and no pitcher on the team has saved a major college game. After depending on Max Scherzer and Nathan Culp to win big games the past two seasons, can Rick Zagone must win games as the number one pitcher on Friday nights in the Big 12?
Why they will win the Big 12: The only way Missouri can win the conference is to shock the conference. They have to play on the road against Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Texas and Baylor and breaking in a new pitching staff against those teams on the road is next to impossible.

9. Kansas Jayhawks

Strength of the Team: KU returns six position starters from a year ago and 18 letterwinners overall. Outfielder John Allman, shortstop Erik Morrison and second baseman Ryne Price all earned regular season or post-season all-conference honors in 2006, while several other players are more than capable of reaching that level including Brock Simpson and Preston Laird.
Biggest Questions: Replacing the seniors from last years team will be next to impossible. The were Coach Price's firs recruiting class and they won more games than any other class in school history. The losses on the mound will cause this team the most trouble since Kodiak Quick, Sean Land, Ricky Fairchild and NCBWA Stopper of the Year, Don Czyz, who earned over half of the team's victories last season.
Why they will win the Big 12: They catch lightning in a bottle on the mound and the newcomers exceed the graduated pitchers in production. The lineup will score runs, and if they have pitching they could return to the NCAA playoffs.

10. Kansas State Wildcats

Strength of the Team: The Wildcats, under fourth-year head coach Brad Hill, return 17 total lettermen and seven pitchers from last year's 31-20-2 squad that won its final five games of the season, including a sweep of Baylor to end Big 12 play. Pitching is their strength, with Brad Hutt and Chase Bayuk, both of whom won seven games in 2006 in the weekend rotation. Ben Hornbeck returns after being named a Louisville Slugger Freshman All-American in his first season and he should be the third starter.
Biggest Questions: Only four of their top nine hitters return from last season including their top four RBI producers in last year's lineup.
Why they will win the Big 12: Building on last season's sweep of Baylor, the Wildcats play about their talent level and are a surprise team led by their pitching staff.